Originally titled (on 7/21/08): All-American Finals? Maybe Not.

Every major sports league has problems with balance. In the NFL, a 10-6 team from the AFC missed the playoffs, while two 9-7 teams from the NFC made the cut. The NBA was even worse; the Golden State Warriors missed the playoffs despite finishing 14 games over .500, while the Atlanta Hawks made the playoffs while being eight games under .500. And the MLB just concluded their All-Star game where the AL won for the twelfth time in the last decade—or maybe it just seems that way.

Unfortunately, the CGS is no stranger to similar issues.

While it remains to be seen which CGS All-Star team is stronger (East or West), there’s been plenty of discussion about team strength—namely how the North American teams seem to have more of it compared to their foreign counterparts.

To that effect, a few team sites have released predictions for the Semi-Finals. The LA Complexity’s Michael “Peawok” Fleming thinks the Semi-Finals will be an American sweep. Ditto for the Chimera’s John “Portland” Higginbotham. San Francisco’s Carlos “rebound” Mercado says his employers will be the victor. Even the CGS’ resident European writer, Max Silver, goes with an American sweep.

If popular opinion holds, more confetti might be on the way for Mark Dolven and the Core ...

Basically, it doesn’t look like it matters who you are, where you write, or whether you stick an extra “u” into seemingly random wourds—if you’re doing predictions, the smart money is on the American teams. And not just some of the smart money. We’re going all-in.

The discrepancy in favorable predictions begs one simple question: is the gap between America and Europe really that bad? I’m not as clairvoyant as Miss Cleo or even Max Silver, but I don’t think so.

Generally speaking, “sure things” aren’t all that sure. Most of the “experts” in various sports thought that the Lakers would beat the Celtics, the Patriots would give the Giants a whoopin’, and that the Yankees would not be looking at Tampa Bay’s record with envy. On a more personal note, I thought the Chicago Chimera would be pretty good this year. Those didn’t turn out so well.

In other words, despite the overwhelming popularity of predictions in favor of the American teams, I’m not convinced it’s going to play out like that. I think we’re overlooking the skill of the Europeans just like people overlooked the Celtics, Giants, and Rays, and doing so in two sublte ways: putting too much emphasis on last year's results in the World Finals, and not putting enough weight on the changes made to both the American and European teams during the offseason.

On the first point, I don't blame people for remembering the big scores like the 33-9 pounding the Chimera gave the Magnetik, or Carolina’s 36-15 win over Seoul. Things like that tend to stick with you. Unfortunately, I think they've stuck with us a little too long and are still being used as evidence for the idea that the American teams are simply better than their foreign counterparts. It's become "common knowledge," but there are a couple problems with that.

The first is that we shouldn't place too much value on last season's results, even though I'm not sure people are doing it consciously. Basically, it's in the past. That was then, this is now. Carolina and Chicago were riding huge hot streaks. BlackMamba, KasumiChan, Mystik, and Carolina’s Source team all upped their games by about ten levels. They were four of the biggest reasons North America dominated the 2007 World Finals, but none of them have been able to replicate that kind of success during this season. The most notable example is Carolina's Source team, which also performed extremely well during CEVO in the offseason, but wasn't a major player in Source during the 2008 North American season.

More importantly, lost in those big, flashy scores is a smaller note: excluding their game against each other, both Chicago and Carolina had their toughest matches in the '07 Semi-Finals against … Birmingham and Berlin, respectively. Chicago won their game by “only” eight points, their smallest margin of victory during the whole World Finals, and Carolina escaped with a one-point win that came down to the last turn in Project Gotham Racing.

... but don't be surprised if Birmingham wins, thanks partly to improved play from their DoA Female.

In other words, the fireworks came early in the tournament and we certainly remember those, but the gap between the top European teams and the top American teams might not be as big as our memories lead us to believe.

That brings us around to the second point: The gap might have narrowed in the offseason thanks to the draft.

We covered the effects of the draft from the American perspective, making a big deal about the Pandemic players providing a spark for New York and Dallas, but the individual player draft in Source opened up new talent for Birmingham and Berlin, too. The Salvo’s Source team came into the World Finals hyped as one of the best in the world. That might have been a little high, as Dallas proved in the Individual Finals, but their talent is still undeniable. Berlin's team has struggled a bit, but they've still got oodles of potential.

In other games, all four remaining teams have done well for themselves in Forza, and the European teams have improved dramatically in DoA Female (Berlin did so thanks to Leifje's massive improvements, Birmingham thanks to a newly drafted player).

The European teams are undoubtedly better than last season's iterations, and on the American side, I don't see two dominating teams when I look at San Francisco and Carolina. Maybe I've missed something, but the last time I checked those two teams both had big question marks heading into the Semi-Finals. The OPTX’s Source team is finally solidifying itself, but if the game was on the line do we really trust them to come through yet? They’re beatable in Forza. They’re very, very good in DoA Male and FIFA, but it’s not like we haven’t seen NinjaCW or Stermy lose, either. Carolina has the same issues, though in slightly different areas.

Basically, there’s a reason that San Francisco went 7-5 during the season and Carolina went 4-8. They’ve stepped up since then, but they haven't gone berserk, and don’t forget that San Francisco came one round away from elimination courtesy of Avtar “Paddaman” Padda of the London Mint. The OPTX escaped that match with a win. It was only one game, but it was the best evidence that the upcoming matches are anything but a foregone conclusion.

In the end, I don’t think it’s wrong to consider Carolina and/or San Francisco a favorite. They're talented. They've come through in the big moments. They've earned their spots in the Semi-Finals, and they’ve got what it takes to advance. It wouldn't shock me if both of them did win.

But the bigger point is that I can say the same about the European teams, and I'm legitimately surprised that out of the seven total predictions, not one was in favor of Berlin or Birmingham. That goes double when you look at the scores in those articles; most of the predicted wins only have a margin of two or three points, if that. Still, nobody crossed to the other side. Don't get me wrong, I'm not blaming the individual writers for this. I'm only using them as examples because I think it's indicative of a larger conception that there is a distinctive gap between the four teams left alive.

Will the European teams dominate the Semi-Finals? I highly doubt that in the same way I highly doubt the American teams will dominate. There's too much skill on both sides, and each team has strengths and weaknesses without having glaring holes or enough "sure things" to run away with the match. In my book, each game is basically a coin flip.

And, looking ahead to next week, I can easily imagine any one of the four teams holding the Dew Trophy amidst a shower of confetti. It's going to be an exciting (and, for some, heart-breaking) week.